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From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire, March 11, 2008

‘Radical Shift: Fresh elections in Serbia could favour the nationalists’

Serbia’s prime minister, Vojislav Kostunica, the leader of the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS), on March 8th announced that irreconcilable differences between the DSS and its pro-EU coalition partners, the Democratic Party (DS) and G17 Plus, necessitated an early election. The leaders of the other parties quickly agreed with the assessment. It seems likely that President Boris Tadic, the DS leader, will agree to dissolve parliament, setting the stage for a preterm general election in May, most likely in tandem with municipal elections scheduled for May 11th.

The government has been brought down after less than a year in office by disputes following the February 17th declaration of independence by Kosovo’s Albanian leadership, and recognition of this by the US and major European states. Mr Kostunica has refused to countenance any deepening of relations with the EU, unless it recognises Serbian sovereignty over Kosovo. President Boris Tadic and the leaderships of the DS and G17 Plus also insist on Serbian sovereignty over Kosovo, but are unwilling to condition deeper EU relations on the EU acknowledging this.

This would appear to mark the end of the so-called democratic coalition, based around the DS and DSS, that toppled Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic in 2000. The coalition had been under strain for several years, as the DS was liberal and pro-EU while the DSS was conservative and mildly nationalist, yet it took Kosovo to trigger a split …

... EU-Serbia ties were in any case set for a prolonged period of difficulty as a result of Kosovo’s independence, as the pro-EU parties in government cannot finesse the Kosovo question when taking concrete steps towards accession. Yet matters could soon get worse: absent a near-inconceivable reconciliation between Messrs Kostunica and Tadic, the pro-EU parties won’t have the seats to form a government. The main rationale for the EU’s recognition of Kosovo, as set out in policy documents, was to help stabilise the Western Balkans. So far, recognition has only created instability in that neighourhood’s largest state.