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Deutsche Welle

EU Study Refutes Fears of Immigration Rush

With EU enlargement, many worry that a wave of unskilled workers from the new eastern states will sweep the wealthy west. But a new study from the European Commission suggests such fears are unfounded.

Responding to concerns about an influx of immigrants from eastern Europe, countries such as France, Germany, Spain and Italy have introduced restrictions banning workers from the new EU states for up to seven years.

But such restrictions may prove to be an overreaction. A new study by the European Commission on migration trends in an enlarged Europe found that relatively few people from the accession countries plan on moving west.

Around 1 percent of the population (1.1 million people) from the 10 new member states have a "firm" intention to migrate, the EU executive body said. But the study's figures showed the possible number of migrants to be three times higher, with 4.5 percent of the population expressing a "general inclination" to move west within the next five years.

Those most likely to migrate were from Poland, where one in 100 adults said they definitely plan to move. People from Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia were the least likely to emigrate.

"This study confirms the commission's view that fears of a huge wave of migration from the new member states will be proven to be unfounded," said Margot Wallström, EU commissioner for employment and social affairs. "The new member states will provide a much-needed input of highly skilled individuals able to contribute actively to the development of the European economy."

Brain drain

But it's exactly the "input of highly skilled individuals" that, according to the commission, is the biggest potential problem posed by enlargement. It warned that the new member states could experience a "brain drain," should they lose their best and brightest students. The study predicted that one in ten graduates and students would head west in the next five years.

As if to further undermine the scare stories appearing in Europe's right-wing press about floods of immigrants, the commission also said that two-thirds of all migration is likely to be of a temporary nature. If economic and social conditions in the new member states improve as a result of enlargement, there will be a greater chance that migrants will return to their home countries in the 10 years following accession.

Ireland still restriction-free

With just two months to go until enlargement, Ireland is the only EU state that has kept its promise not to restrict access to labor markets and welfare for new immigrants. Earlier this week, Britain went back on its pledge of no restrictions and introduced a two-year ban on benefit claims as well as a worker registration scheme.

Commenting on the various restrictions, European Commission President Romano Prodi (photo) said he was concerned about the message they send to the new EU members. "I've already expressed my worry about it because this is not a generous act," Prodi said. "It's difficult for me to share a special emergency preoccupation about that. I don't think that the number of potential immigrants will be so huge."

IMF Chief Köhler Picked as Next German President

The head of the International Monetary Fund, Horst K–hler, is likely to become Germany's next president after he was officially nominated on Thursday as the candidate of the country's conservative and liberal parties.

After discussions which lasted into the early hours of Thursday morning, Germany's main opposition parties finally agreed to put forward Horst K–hler, the chairman of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Washington, as their joint candidate to become the country's ninth post-war president.

The decision to nominate 61-year-od K–hler for the presidency was taken by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) and the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP).

The conservatives and liberals together have a majority in the Federal Convention, a collection of federal and regional parliamentarians, who have the power to elect Germany's largely symbolic head of state. The vote will take place on May 23.

The current president, Johannes Rau, is a Social Democrat. Likely knowing he had little chance for a second term with the opposition controlling the Federal Convention, he has decided to step down. Now that CDU, CSU and FDP have decided on K–hler, his candidacy should encounter little opposition.

"I am very proud that we've managed this as we have under such complicated conditions," CDU party leader Angela Merkel said, adding she called K–hler at 2 a.m. Washington to tell him of the nomination. "He woke up rather quickly," she joked.

The agreements end several months of tense negotiations between the leaders of the three opposition parties and within the parties themselves over who should succeed Rau.

FDP against Sch”uble

Recent negotiations regarding the possible nomination of Wolfgang Sch”uble, the former CDU party chairman and one-time front-runner for the presidency, had threatened to split the opposition parties.

Much internal criticism has been aimed at Merkel for her failure to forcefully backing her predecessor. Merkel had expressed fears that Sch”uble would face a rejection from enough FDP and CDU members in the Federal Assembly to torpedo his bid.

K–hler's chances to become president rose after the FDP said earlier this week it would not support nominating Sch”uble.

If K–hler is elected president of Germany it will be remarkable twist in the story of his life and career. Born in SkierbieszÛw, southeastern Poland on February 22, 1943, K–hler is the seventh of eight children. His parents were ethnic German farmers from Romania. The family moved to Leipzig in communist East Germany after World War II, then fled to West Germany in 1954.

K–hler made a political name for himself as deputy finance minister between 1990 and 1993 under, Chancellor Helmut Kohl. It was K–hler who masterminded the funding of the withdrawal of the Red Army from the former German Democratic Republic after the fall of the Berlin Wall. He also played Germany's part in the construction and completion of the Maastricht Treaty which put in place the rules governing economic and monetary union in Europe.

Currently the head of the IMF, K–hler had almost disappeared from the contemporary German political scene while working and living in Washington with his wife and two children.

Despite being a member of the CDU since 1981, K–hler is not a party politician. This could be seen as an advantage in the role of head of state, which is largely apolitical. The role of German president carries considerable moral authority although the role is mainly ceremonial.

 

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